Anne Coulter made the claim that nearly 20% of young African American males voted for Mitt Romney.  The audience was stunned, as they should have been.  Because no one goes to a show’s taping wearing their statistician hat no one there challenged her.   Suprisingly no one in the media challenged her either.  As a social scientist I am always wearing my statistician hat.  So when she made this claim, I, being well aware that Mitt Romney recieved only 6% of the overall African American vote decided to verify this claim.  Using data from the American National Election Study I was unable to verify this claim. 

Presidential vote * Race Crosstabulation
Count
Gender Race Total
White Black Hispanic Other
Male Presidential vote Obama 77 72 64 19 232
Romney 108 3 13 4 128
Other 19 1 5 3 28
Total 204 76 82 26 388
Female Presidential vote Obama 96 95 86 26 303
Romney 94 0 18 6 118
Other 6 0 4 2 12
Total 196 95 108 34 433

 

Nevertheless, I decided to give Miss Coulter the benefit of the doubt and examine the implied “Rise of the Young Black Conservative Male”.  Afterall, there are reports (using polling data) that use this statistic to make the claim that a growing number of African American males are conservative.  First, to make this claim true, one must extend the definition of young voters to include voters between the ages of 25 and 30, or exclude those between 36 and 44.  Either way you examined the numbers, the extant Census data and ANES data had to be manipulated.  The next step is to examine that bit of thuthiness.  It is upon examination of that truthiness that we learn that African American males are NOT becomining more conservative.  Instead it is because that population is dead, incarcerated, disenfranchised, or doesn’t vote. Allow me to explain.  1 in 8 African Americans are disenfranchised. The majority of these individuals are male. And before you claim felony disenfranchisement is not racially motivated, it did not exist prior to the Eve of the Civil War to suppress the votes of the few freed blacks eligible to vote. (When there is History and Data…..) In an age graded analysis of African American voters (that I had no intention of doing) Young African American males had a smaller population (about 3.7 million).  Of those 3.7 Million 926,000 out of 2.2 million of 18-24 year olds voted.  The additional 25-29 year olds (about 1.5 million total) 700,000 voted.  So the total African American Male millenial vote is approximately 1.6 million young men out of 3.6 million men in the population or 43% of black males millineals turned out to vote.  So Williard Mitt Romney won 304,000 votes out of 1.6 million and people actually claim this as a victory of sorts.  Keep in mind that I cannot find data to support this.  Nevertheless 8% of all black male Millenials supposedly voted for Mitt Romney.  I guess, to quote Rachel Maddow, “Its a victory if you squint”.

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